The Next 5000 Days

… and some laws of media:

“Copies have no value.
Value is in the uncopyable.
Media wants to be liquid.
Network effects rule.”

Hard Drive Space Infinite?

This speech is two years old, anyway, an interesting talk by Marrissa Mayer from Google about the future of video.

At one point in the speech I recognized a thing which is often forgotten, when we think about the consumer behavior and product design in the future: The incredible fast developement of hard drive space … Marissa depicts this developement on an simple arithmetic example… (3:30 Min - 4:40 Min)

“… By somewhere in the year 2020 you will be able to have all content ever created sitting in the palm of your hand…”

Digital content will be ubiquitous available … HD quality or whatever … there is no way out…. there will be no boundaries… awkward thought.

Dan Ariely About The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions

I already wrote a few months ago about his great book „Predictably Irrational”.
Dan recently gave a speech about his book at Google. Very recommended 50 minutes!
Great insights in consumer behavior.

The Piracy Paradox

Maybe some of you heard about it… or already read the paper… one more interesting argument in the never ending discussing about piracy…

There is a global industry that produces a huge variety of creative goods in markets larger than those for movies, books or music and does so without strong copyright protection. Competition, innovation, and investment, however, remain vibrant. That industry is fashion.

We all know the fashion industry is one of the most creative and innovative industries out there. So fashion firms show precisely the opposite behavior of that predicted by the standard theory of copyrights that predicts extensive copying will destroy the incentive for new innovation.

So why, when major content industries have increasingly powerful copyright protections for their products, does fashion design remain mostly unprotected - and economically successful?

This paradox analyse Kal Raustiala and Christopher Sprigman in an article named: “THE PIRACY PARADOX: INNOVATION AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY IN FASHION DESIGN” in the Virgina Law Review.

They argue that the fashion industry counter-intuitively operates within a low-copyright equilibrium in which copying does not deter innovation and may actually promote it. The paper offers a model explaining how the fashion industry’s piracy paradox works, and how copying functions as an important element of and perhaps even a necessary predicate to the industry’s swift cycle of innovation.

The paper is quite long (92 pages), but you don`t have to read the whole paper to get the message. Piracy is an issue an industry can deal with under some circumstances…

At a conference of The New Yorker (May 2008 ) one of the authors Kal Raustiala talked together with Scott Hemphill and James Surowiecki about the effect pirated goods have on the fashion industry. See the video here or download the podcast on itunes.

Games Industry Still Booming

Just found two updates to the games industry via Digitalmediawire.

The games market is still growing fast. U.S. video game sales were up 53% in June from a year ago, to $1.69 billion according to sales data compiled by market research firm NPD Group. For the first half of 2008, the U.S. video game industry has generated $8.3 billion in sales. This is a 36 percent increase in sales from the same period a year before.
And games are becoming more and more a mainstream entertainment form according to a survey conducted by Ipsos MediaCT for game industry trade group the Entertainment Software Association (ESA). The average age of an American gamer has risen to 35, 65% of U.S. households play video games and women comprise 40% of U.S. video game players.

Any discussion about piracy? Why is this industry more clever than the rest?

What Is Your Primary Digital Front End?

… to listen music?

I found via Coolfer a small interesting poll on the website of the mag Stereophile. Of course that`s no academic primary research and you`re reaching just  “music geeks”  on this website, but anyway an interesting question and figures…
Here the results:

• CD player: 34%
• Hi-rez disc player: 11%
• iPod: 4%
• Music Server (computer-based): 36%
• Music Server (dedicated: Sooloos, Sonos, etc.): 10%
• Other: 3%

Well…apparently the hifi-system in the average livingroom is changing…

Maybe there are somewhere serious numbers for a broad user set to a similar question…

Avril Earns $ 2 Million With YouTube

Paidcontent reports from MusicTank’s Face To Face With The Millennials conference in London where Terry McBride (Manager of Avril Lavigne) said: ”There’s about a $2 million cheque waiting for her for all her YouTube plays.”

Of course it`s one of this extreme examples (Avril has nearly 100 mio views… most ever on YouTube) but it shows… there is much more potential in “ad supported channels” for artists than just using it as a “promo tool”.

The Unlimited Jukebox In Your Pocket For Free

A dream a few years ago… and now we are nearer than we think.

Just found this Mediaweek article:

“Internet radio upstart Pandora has streamed 3.3 million songs to iPhone users since the launch of its new mobile application, making it the third most popular such app for the red-hot device”

Using a data flat rate on the iPhone and you can enjoy all the big music streaming platforms (not just Pandora, Last.Fm works already too - see the userinterface in the pic) for free…

Well not yet everybody has an “iPhone level device” in his pocket… but soon.

Live Music Widget

Simple Idea… and pretty useful…
Don`t know what to do tomorrow night? … staying a few days in a foreign city? … searching for livemusic? … you like to explore new music? …

HearWhere.com

Fullservice! Prelistening, googlemaps link…. worldwide… all you need.

Accenture Content Study - IPTV

Just read the new Accenture global content study 2008 ” The Challenge of Change: Perspectives of the Future for Content Providers“.

Well there is nothing surprising new… anyway here the key findings:

• About 63 percent of companies are pursuing a multi-platform distribution strategy.
• More than one-third of companies expect to see significant revenues from social media and user-generated content within three years.
• About 84 percent of companies expect mobile rich media to become mass market, representing the largest growth opportunity for media and entertainment firms.
• About 52 percent of those interviewed see digital advertising eclipsing traditional advertising within five years.

More interesting is an older Accenture article about IPTV - “Infinite possibilities” Television? (2006) - I found accidentally at their website. It hassome worth reading thoughts about the potential and possibilities of IPTV.